The government’s autumn budget must plug the £2.2bn NHS deficit or risk facing service and staffing cuts ahead of a ‘difficult winter’, NHS Confederation has warned.
If the NHS’s ‘financial crisis’ is not tackled, there may not be enough capacity in place to manage winter pressures, it added, saying the funds were needed ‘immediately’.
Three quarters of ICSs submitted deficit plans for the 2024/25 financial year, totalling £2.2bn in overspend, according to a report to the July NHS England board meeting.
Matthew Taylor, chief executive of NHS Confederation, warned that this winter would be a ‘crucial test’ for the government.
He said: ‘We have welcomed the new government’s focus on improving health and care services and believe it shares the same long-term goals as NHS leaders. We understand the very difficult economic circumstances they have inherited and the perilous state of the public finances.
‘But as winter looms and the NHS reports a growing financial black hole, the Chancellor needs to take urgent action ahead of the autumn budget to ensure NHS leaders are not forced into a position of having to cut more staff and patient care to balance their books.’
He added that there may be extra costs beyond the £2.2bn predicted overspend, with the impact of GP collective action, settling the pay dispute with junior doctors and the extra costs of the latest pay awards for nurses and agenda for change staff.
NHS Confederation estimates that the pay awards will cost around £4.4bn, of which the health service will need to find £1bn, therefore presenting a financial gap of at least £3.2bn.
Mr Taylor said: ‘As the NAO and others have said, the reality is that the NHS needs a financial reset ahead of the government’s new 10-year NHS strategy that will be published next spring.
‘If the immediate funding crisis isn’t addressed, then we risk not only presiding over another damaging winter but also harming efforts to cut record waiting lists and making other long-term improvements such as shifting more care into the community.’
He also reiterated calls for the government to provide more long-term financial security for the NHS and to ‘properly plan for winter each year’, without relying on ‘last minute pots of cash’.
It comes after a National Audit Office (NAO) report earlier this summer found that 15 out of 19 ICB CFOs said their integrated care board’s (ICB) underlying financial position had deteriorated in 2023/24, with seven saying it had done so ‘significantly’.
The NAO NHS financial management and sustainability report 2024, which included case studies, interviews, and financial analysis alongside the survey, estimated there was £1.4bn aggregated deficit in 2023/24 across the 42 ICSs, with three ICBs in NHS England’s Recovery Support Programme alongside 21 trusts.
